{"id":906,"date":"2026-03-12T10:52:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T03:52:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.blockped.id\/?p=906"},"modified":"2026-03-12T10:52:38","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T03:52:38","slug":"peluang-bitcoin-ke-78-ribu-menipis-trader-profesional-mulai-waspada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.blockped.id\/?p=906","title":{"rendered":"Peluang Bitcoin ke $78 Ribu Menipis: Trader Profesional Mulai Waspada"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin saat ini masih berada di bawah tekanan. Kombinasi ketegangan geopolitik dan data ketenagakerjaan yang buruk berhasil meredam dampak positif dari arus masuk ETF Bitcoin. Akibatnya, target harga $78.000<\/b> kemungkinan besar harus mundur dari akhir Maret ke bulan-bulan berikutnya.<\/p>\n

Poin-Poin Utama:<\/b><\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n

    Sikap Kehati-hatian Trader:<\/b> Meski ada aliran dana dari ETF, para trader profesional tetap memproyeksikan peluang yang rendah bagi Bitcoin untuk menembus $78.000 dalam waktu dekat.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Sentimen Negatif Makroekonomi:<\/b> Konflik geopolitik (AS, Israel, dan Iran) serta lemahnya data tenaga kerja Amerika Serikat menekan momentum positif di pasar kripto.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  • \n

    Peluang Hanya 17%:<\/b> Data dari pasar opsi Bitcoin menunjukkan bahwa probabilitas Bitcoin menembus $78.000 saat ini hanya sekitar 17%.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Dinamika Pasar: ETF vs Pasar Derivatif<\/b><\/h3>\n

    Meskipun Bitcoin sempat kembali menyentuh level $70.000 pada hari Rabu, kegagalan berulang kali untuk melewati angka $74.000 selama lima minggu terakhir telah memicu keraguan di pasar.<\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n

      Arus Dana ETF:<\/b> Arus masuk bersih sebesar $414 juta ke ETF Bitcoin AS pada hari Senin dan Selasa belum cukup untuk menutupi total arus keluar sebesar $576 juta yang terjadi pada hari Kamis dan Jumat pekan sebelumnya.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Sikap Pesimis Pasar Derivatif:<\/b> Berdasarkan data dari Deribit untuk opsi call<\/i> 27 Maret dengan target harga $78.000, whales<\/i> (investor besar) dan market maker<\/i> melihat kurang dari 17% peluang bagi Bitcoin untuk naik 12% dari harganya saat ini.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

    • \n

      Futures Stagnan:<\/b> Permintaan untuk posisi long<\/i> (beli) dengan leverage<\/i> juga stagnan, terlihat dari tingkat premium tahunan (basis rate<\/i>) untuk Bitcoin futures<\/i> bulanan yang masih tertahan di bawah ambang batas netral 4%. Data on-chain<\/i> dan derivatif ini mengindikasikan pasar yang sedang lesu, meski tidak ada tanda-tanda ekspektasi akan terjadinya crash<\/i> (anjlok tajam).<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Faktor Ekonomi Global yang Membayangi<\/b><\/h3>\n

      Kewaspadaan para trader sangat dipengaruhi oleh memburuknya prospek ekonomi global:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • \n

        Inflasi dan Harga Minyak:<\/b> Seema Shah dari Principal Asset Management mencatat bahwa investor kini lebih khawatir bagaimana konflik geopolitik akan memicu inflasi. Kenaikan harga minyak sebesar $25 dinilai telah menghapus manfaat fiskal dari One Big Beautiful Bill Act<\/i>. Secara historis (seperti pada Perang Teluk 1990 dan Invasi Ukraina 2022), harga minyak butuh waktu sekitar enam bulan untuk kembali stabil.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

      • \n

        Data Tenaga Kerja & Kredit:<\/b> Berkurangnya 92.000 lapangan kerja di AS pada bulan Februari sangat mengecewakan analis yang awalnya memprediksi penambahan 55.000 pekerjaan. Sentimen pasar semakin memburuk setelah JPMorgan dilaporkan menurunkan nilai pinjaman kredit swasta ke perusahaan perangkat lunak.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Faktor Pendorong: Strategi Korporasi<\/b><\/h3>\n

        Terlepas dari suramnya ekonomi makro, saham perusahaan Strategy (MSTR US) menjadi penopang yang semakin kuat bagi harga Bitcoin.<\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n

          Volume perdagangan dan harga saham MSTR yang mencapai rekor tertinggi membuka peluang bagi perusahaan untuk menerbitkan saham baru, yang hasilnya digunakan untuk memborong lebih banyak Bitcoin spot.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n

        • \n

          Menurut analisis pasar (termasuk dari pengguna X “gumsays”), adopsi Strategy Variable Rate Perpetual<\/i> (STRC US) bisa memicu pembelian Bitcoin senilai miliaran dolar per minggunya.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          Kesimpulan:<\/b> Kombinasi permintaan institusional dan arus masuk ETF memang menjanjikan pertumbuhan jangka panjang, namun para trader sepertinya harus menunggu hingga lewat bulan Maret untuk melihat Bitcoin memecahkan rekor $78.000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Bitcoin saat ini masih berada di bawah tekanan. Kombinasi ketegangan geopolitik dan data ketenagakerjaan yang buruk berhasil meredam dampak positif dari arus masuk ETF Bitcoin. Akibatnya, target harga $78.000 kemungkinan […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":907,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[26,25,28,23],"class_list":["post-906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-edukasi","tag-bursa-saham","tag-crypto","tag-investasi","tag-seal-m-on-cross"],"yoast_head":"\nPeluang Bitcoin ke $78 Ribu Menipis: Trader Profesional Mulai Waspada<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analisis pasar kripto: ETF Bitcoin masuk, tapi ketegangan geopolitik dan data ekonomi AS membuat peluang BTC tembus $78.000 hanya 17%.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/new.blockped.id\/?p=906\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta 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